Plus: NY to spend $750M on EV charging; BMW commits $2.3B to batteries; more hydrogen coming
I think we are witnessing a tipping point when it comes to electric vehicles. Read my comments below to see how I come to that. Tell me what you think.
In somewhat related developments, it was rather remarkable to see that Tesla is now worth more than Toyota the next nearest competitor for market capitalization. In fact, Tesla is now worth about the same as VW, GM, Ford, Daimler, BMW, Honda and Fiat Chrysler combined. (I had to do my own spreadsheet to check). That’s 7 other big car companies! Talk about investor enthusiasm.
I’d still like to hear from you about the new format. What tweaks would you still like to see. I’ve only heard back from a handful of you, so let me know what you think.
Many of you have wide personal networks. Some of you may have particularly influential ones. Please consider sending this on and encourage them to subscribe.
Thanks and have a great couple weeks.
Peter
Observations, Comments & Questions
Electric Vehicle Tipping Point?
The very last posted story may in fact be the most important among all the rest. It talks about the Osborne Effect – where people delay a purchase to wait for a better product due to come out soon. The suggestion is that we are seeing that now with people delaying the purchase of a new vehicle because they think a better option may be coming – such as an electric one. Many of the other posts point to vehicle electrification, both in the form of manufacturers making big investments there (BMW – $2.3B on battery-making; Rivian raising another $2.5B for an electric truck), and governments either mandating no-emission vehicles (15 states join California in EV push) or investing heavily in electric vehicle charging infrastructure (see NY investing $750 million).
But let’s look at this another way….the degrees of separation between you and someone who owns an electric vehicle. Not long ago, it was “I know someone who knows someone who knows someone that has an electric vehicle”. Now we are seeing that separation shrink. When someone can share first-hand experience directly, the mystery disappears fast along with unease about the barriers of charging, range, etc.
With many calling to simultaneously address climate change, governments may choose to subsidize EVs as part of the recovery spending. So wrap this all up and what do you have? Feels like a tipping point to me. Maybe not in the form that we usually think of tipping points, but transitions in the social dimension are harder to spot. As always, the question is how fast will vehicle electrification unfold. Everything I’m seeing so far points to a lot faster than many think. How do you see it? Tell me what you think.
Right idea, wrong place: the challenge of siting solar farms
This challenge is typified by the plan to build a large solar farm on some of the best agricultural land in Alberta (see story below). A better way to go would be to sign a virtual power purchase agreement with a solar farm in southern Alberta, where solar potential is better and the climate and soil less suited to agriculture unless supplemented with artificial rain – irrigation. Anytime I see irrigation, I think “an artificial economy vulnerable to climate change” (sorry if this sounds cold to those hard working families who have done this for generations). While I’m at it, I almost never hear a solar developer say how they are going to thoughtfully have a complimentary use for the land and not sterilize it for solar only. So that begs a question – what is the best co-uses for land used for solar farms? Obviously, it depends on the soil and climate but I’ve seen wildflowers for bees, grazing for sheep. What have you seen that works?
Technology
Tesla’s Shift To Cobalt-Free Batteries Is Its Most Important Move Yet | Forbes
A couple of months ago, it was revealed that Tesla was working with CATL on lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries, and these could be the real gamechanger. Tesla will be using LFP for the batteries in its Chinese Model 3, after receiving government approval to do so. It is estimated that using LFP batteries will allow a 15-20% reduction in manufacturing cost. Taking calculations regarding how much of a car’s cost is batteries into account, this could make EVs a mere 10% more expensive than ICE instead of 30%, which will be easy to regain in cheaper running costs over a year or two of ownership. It will also give EVs an even greater lead over fuel-cell technology, making it even less likely that hydrogen will be the future of electric cars
Six electric pickups expected to make it to market | The Globe and Mail
The truck wars are escalating, but it’s no longer a battle among the Detroit Three. A new crop of pickups are coming, and they’re all electric. Many new automakers are entering the space, vying for a piece of the lucrative pie. Here are six electric trucks on the horizon.
Rivian raises $2.5 billion ahead of launch of electric pickup and SUV | The Verge
EV startup Rivian has raised $2.5 billion, bringing its total funding to date to around $6 billion ahead of the launch of its all-electric pickup truck and SUV in early 2021.
BMW signs US$2.3B battery order with Goldman-backed firm | BNN Bloomberg
Northvolt, a Swedish firm started by two former Tesla Inc. executives, will manufacture the cells using renewable electricity and deliver them from 2024 as part of a long-term contract, BMW said in a statement Thursday.Local access to batteries is becoming key for automakers trying to become less dependent on dominant suppliers in Asia.
VW to ditch petrol and diesel cars manufacturing at key factory | Euractiv
Volkswagen is set to remove production lines for all internal combustion engine vehicles from one of its key factories this year, replacing them with electric vehicle production capacity. The carmaker this week unveiled plans to convert its production plant in Emden, Germany, to an e-mobility-only location, at a cost of €1bn.
Solar farm the size of 313 football fields to be built at Edmonton airport | CBC
Project will be largest solar farm at an airport anywhere in the world. Edmonton International Airport and Alpin Sun are working on an agreement that will see the company develop Airport City Solar, a 627-acre, 120-megawatt solar farm on what is now a canola field on the west side of the airport lands.
World’s Largest Green Hydrogen Project Unveiled in Saudi Arabia | Greentech Media
Air Products & Chemicals, the U.S. industrial gas giant, announced plans on Tuesday to build a green hydrogen plant in Saudi Arabia powered by 4 gigawatts of wind and solar power, the world’s largest such project announced so far.
Industrial Giants Seek Green Fuel From Solar Power | BNN Bloomberg
As the European Union launches a new push to make hydrogen one of the clean fuels of the future, two French industrial giants say they’ve found the right project to rapidly scale up the nascent industry. Engie SA and Air Liquide SA want to build solar farms big enough to power 450,000 homes in France’s sun-drenched Provence region, with enough electricity left over to produce hydrogen by electrolyzing water. Some of the clean-burning gas would be sold to refineries and chemicals makers in Fos-sur-Mer, curbing their emissions of carbon dioxide.
Sunrun-Vivint Solar deal represents largest consolidation in residential solar history | Woodmac
Commenting on the deal, Ravi Manghani, Wood Mackenzie Research Director, said: “Per Wood Mackenzie’s US PV Leaderboard, Sunrun and Vivint have been the #1 and #2 residential solar companies in the US for the past few years. Sunrun holds about 9% of the market share and Vivint is right behind at 7-8%. Without assuming any erosion or gains in market share, the combined entity will represent about 15+% of overall market share.
Orsted signs ‘world’s largest’ renewables PPA in Taiwan | RENEWS.BIZ
Orsted and Taiwan-based TSMC have signed a corporate power purchase agreement (CPPA) for all the production from the former’s 920MW Greater Changhua 2b & 4 offshore wind farm..
Policy
15 states will follow California’s push to electrify trucks and buses | The Verge
Fifteen states and Washington, DC have announced that they will follow California’s lead in switching all heavy-duty trucks, vans, and buses over to running on electricity, in what could be one of the most significant efforts to reduce harmful diesel engine pollution in the United States.
New York State to spend $750M on EV charging infrastructure | Electrek
Governor Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) announced late yesterday that New York State will spend $701 million for EV infrastructure and other initiatives in the “EV Made Ready” program. That funds 53,773 Level 2 charging stations and 1,500 Direct Current Fast Charging (DCFC) stations by 2025.
Germany approves coal phaseout by 2038 | DW
German lawmakers have backed a legislative package to end the use of coal in less than two decades. But activists have decried the measures, saying they aren’t bold enough to mitigate the impact of climate change.
EU aims for 40GW of green hydrogen electrolysers, and one million jobs, by 2030 | Renew Economy
German politicians and the country’s heavy industry have welcomed the European hydrogen strategy presented by the European Commission, which closely mirrored Germany’s own strategy published last month. The Commission paper lays down a three-step plan, which starts with construction of electrolysers to produce green hydrogen for use in industries (steel, chemicals, refineries) up until 2024, followed by the creation of local hydrogen production hotspots, which will be linked to industrial users and buildings in so-called “hydrogen valleys”, by 2030
NT unveils strategy to lead global renewable hydrogen market | RenewEconomy
The Northern Territory has unveiled a strategy to transform Australia’s Top End into a world leader in the transition to renewable hydrogen and to contribute to the NT Labor government’s commitment to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. The 20-page Renewable Hydrogen Strategy (PDF), published on Friday, detail’s the Territory’s aspirations to be “an international-scale” hub for renewable hydrogen technology research, production and downstream manufacturing.
Consumers
GRI and SASB are collaborating. Is that good news for companies? | Greenbiz
The SASB-GRI announcement is promising. Both organizations believe that transparency — and particularly performance metrics and comparable information — lead to improved societal outcomes. Said SASB’s Guillot: “If financial and nonfinancial stakeholders have access to information and can compare company performance on issues, then our theory of change is that companies will compete to improve performance and that at the end of the day leads to improved sustainability outcomes.”
Chinese oil demand almost back to pre-virus crisis levels | Markets Insider
Oil demand in China has almost returned to its level before the coronavirus pandemic spurred the government to impose lockdowns and shut down industries, Bloomberg reported Monday.
The Osborne Effect: Why new car sales will be all electric in six years | The Driven
Sales of internal combustion engine cars have been falling consistently and every month since the end of 2017. The continuing erosion of ICE sales through 2020 as the Osborne Effect continues to impact on overall car sales will convince car makers to release EV models faster. (The Osborne effect is a social phenomenon of customers canceling or deferring orders for the current soon-to-be-obsolete product as an unexpected drawback of a company’s announcing a future product prematurely. Remember it!).