Plus: 6 weeks worth of headlines!
Hi everyone,
Happy New Year! Like me, I hope you had nice break with family and friends over the holidays.
Sorry for the long break since my last issue. Life got in the way. However, I’m making it up to you. I did keep scanning for stories and I’m giving you 6 weeks worth to skim. Better yet, I offer a quick summary of the key themes I interpreted from the many stories, along with some commentary.
Here we go – on to year seven for this newsletter! Hope you’re enjoying it. Continue to share it with others and encourage them to subscribe!
Thanks,
Peter
Peter’s 2023 key themes and commentary
Below are some key themes from 2023 that I’ve seen across the topics I cover, along with a bit of personal commentary salted in. Excuse the mix of brief bullet points and full sentences. While I have many more thoughts on these and other topics, I’ve kept it short. I left it until New Years Day to compile this, so yah, I’ve spent enough time on this for now. If you have questions or comments, please drop me a note.
Finance & Sentiment
- Broadly, the narratives are overwhelmingly biased to slow production of oil and gas – We saw this in spades at COP28. Very limited focus on reducing demand for oil and gas. I find the latter the most disappointing. Roughly 80% of emissions are at the end-use consumption. Why aren’t we talking more about the solutions needed here? My call to action: focus on cities. Two thirds of the global population will live in cities by 2050. And 75% of end-use emissions occur there. I feel like a broken record talking about building codes, mass transit, high speed inter-city rail and more. Thankfully, I’m seeing a glimmer of hope in my own province on buildings (see story below in that section).
- For now, banks are still providing financing to oil and gas, despite pressure and disclosure rules.
- Inflation/affordability suggests government supports yet needed to help consumers with shift (e.g., energy efficiency, heat pumps, etc.)
- The impact of US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) on investment growth is slowing; other markets struggling to attract investment.
Hydrogen
- Green hydrogen project proposals abound, but very few real projects show the challenges: green hydrogen is more expensive to produce. And why isn’t anyone talking about all the fresh water that is needed? See here for a great report and infographic looking at the water issue in Alberta, thanks to WaterSMART Solutions and the funders of the study!
- Cities are pivoting away from hydrogen buses and choosing battery-electric buses instead
- Long-Haul Trucks: Nikola, Hyzon and Daimler bringing trucks to market. Refueling infrastructure in Europe far more ready than in North America
- Hydrogen suffers from the “chicken/egg” problem. Investments in production rely on certainty of demand and vice versa. Neither can go first, and going together geographically proximal is more complicated – thus early growth is slow.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
- Seeing projects in Europe and the US moving ahead
- Remarkable investor interest in expensive Direct Air Capture (DAC); but CCS-as-a-service struggling with only a few investments being made.
- Some opposition to CO2 pipelines in US
- In the US, Federal regulation of CO2 injection wells is creating a huge backlog, slowing projects and creating an opening for delegating permitting to states (e.g. Louisiana)
- Broadly, this is another part of the “all-of-the above” approach we must take to tackle climate change. Yes, it is costly. Which is why governments around the world see the merit in providing financial incentives. Canadian governments ought to be putting more on the table and keep the rules simple.
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)
- There is still a long runway ahead for SMRs, owing to multiple factors: costs are still high and the number of project are still too small to see any cost decreases from scaling; social acceptance remains tentative; public consultation and permitting processes combined with construction could take a decade, adding to costs.
- While interest and investments are perking up somewhat with projects in Canada and Europe, one project in the US (NuScale in Utah) was cancelled.
- Broadly, we should be open-minded about SMRs. We need an all-of-above approach to tackling climate change and SMRs offer a dependable solution for zero-emission electricity, one that could nicely complement solar and wind generation.
Grids
- Local market uncertainty of electricity reliability as proportion of renewables on grids over 50%; Points to the need for affordable long duration energy storage.
- The US still has a massive backlog for connecting renewable projects. Plus getting power from where it is generated to where it is used requires much more transmission lines to be built – which is also seeing challenges.
- The incredible build-out of transmission and distribution lines to further electrify our economies will be costly. There are many ways to minimize costs that we are not yet embracing. Market regulation and utility rate design really must get on with time-of-use pricing and leverage smart software to manage peak demand, manage for demand response (think midday use of solar), etc. Broadly, energy-efficiency is getting too little attention.
Renewables
- New offshore wind projects struggle, some being cancelled. Profit margins were already thin, but now with costs rising due to inflation along with higher interest rates, the combination makes projects uneconomic.
- China’s buildout of renewable impresses: it surpassed that of coal power for the first time in history. See more here.
Electric Vehicles
- Divergence in global demand for EVs: slowing of the growth in demand in NA and Europe; continued growth in China – more than half of global EVs are sold in China, with one quarter of new car sales there being battery-electric.
Energy Storage
- Big batteries to back up solar power are getting bigger and more widespread.
- Limited developments of alternative technologies (e.g., compressed air, gravity, etc.)
Government Policy
- Governments are yielding on timelines for their ambitions for going greener in favor of addressing voter issues like affordability and inflation.
- “Policy teeth are beginning to bite”:
- Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is taking root in Europe: it places a tax on carbon-intensive goods imported to Europe (think steel, cement, etc).
- Market regulators (think US SEC, but for other countries too) are planning to implement new rules for disclosure, especially in relation to emissions and climate risk.
Finance & Sentiment
UAE seeks to silence critics with $30-billion climate fund pledge with BlackRock, Brookfield | CNBC
The United Arab Emirates on Friday announced it would contribute $30 billion to a new fund aiming to divert private sector capital towards climate investments and improve financing for the Global South.
Rockefeller Foundation Makes Net Zero Pledge for $6 Billion Endowment | BNN Bloomberg
The Rockefeller Foundation, established in 1913 by Standard Oil tycoon John D. Rockefeller, announced Tuesday that it aims to make its $6 billion endowment net zero emissions by 2050. That makes it the largest private foundation in the US with such a target.
Iberdrola, Masdar unveil £12 billion offshore wind and hydrogen partnership | Current
Green energy companies Iberdrola and Masdar have today (5 December) announced a €15 billion (£12.86 billion) strategic partnership to explore offshore wind and green hydrogen projects in the UK, US and Germany. Signed at this year’s COP28, the two companies plan to co-invest in the 1.4GW East Anglia 3 offshore wind project.
Technology
Hydrogen
Global installed green hydrogen capacity passes 1GW mark, with FID taken on a further 12GW: report | Hydrogen Insight
The global deployment of electrolysers at green hydrogen projects has finally passed the gigawatt mark, having risen 60% in the past year to 1.1GW, according to a new report from the Hydrogen Council. [Excerpt] Nevertheless, a further 12GW of electrolysis projects have reached final investment decision (FID), representing 1.3 million tonnes of green hydrogen. Roughly 7GW of that capacity is in China, with 2GW in the Middle East and 2GW in the US and Europe.
Hybot unveils 1,000 km range FCEV truck | China Hydrogen Bulletin
Hybot, a hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicle maker, unveiled its H49 heavy duty truck on Dec 12. It is the world’s first heavy duty truck that can run for over 1,000 km on gaseous hydrogen, said the Guangdong province-based company.
Fortescue presses go on more than $1.1 billion of green hydrogen and iron projects | RenewEconomy
Andrew Forrest’s Fortescue Metals Group has announced three of the first green hydrogen deals to reach a final investment decision in the United States and Australia.
€800m to jolt the market: EU activates hydrogen boosters | edie
The EU’s Hydrogen Bank has begun operations and is offering €800m to hydrogen producers to kickstart demand for the fuel crucial to industrial decarbonisation.
TESCanada Proposes $2.9B Green Hydrogen Project in Quebec | Rig Zone
Energy project developer TESCanada H2 Inc. has proposed a $2.9 billion (CAD 4 billion) green hydrogen project dedicated to Quebec end users. TESCanada’s Projet Mauricie consists of the construction of an electrolyzer and renewable energy production assets and is targeted to produce 70,000 metric tons of green hydrogen upon its commissioning in 2028.
Unilever makes green hydrogen breakthrough in push for fossil-free laundry products | edie
As Unilever works to eliminate all carbon derived from virgin fossil fuels from its laundry and cleaning products by 2030, it has signed an agreement to procure low-carbon soda ash to reduce the footprint of its laundry powder.
China’s SPIC plans $5.9 billion investment turning green hydrogen into fuel | Reuters
China’s State Power Investment Corp announced a 42 billion yuan ($5.85 billion) investment plan in northeast China to produce fuel from hydrogen produced from wind power, according to a company official and a local government report.
Fifteen hydrogen projects to receive €1.25bn of EU innovation funding after signing grant agreements | Hydrogen Insight
[Excerpt] Recipients include Fortescue, H2 Green Steel, Bosch, Iberdrola, Repsol and Topsoe. Most of the awards had been announced in July, but the size of the funding has only just been revealed. All recipients have now signed their grant agreements with the European Climate, Infrastructure and Environment Executive Agency (CINEA), the implementing body of the EU Innovation Fund, from which the money will be issued.
Second major blue hydrogen project reaches final investment decision in Rotterdam | Hydrogen Insight
French industrial gases firm Air Liquide has taken a final investment decision (FID) to retrofit carbon capture equipment to an existing grey hydrogen facility in Rotterdam in order to make blue H2 for its existing customers.
Carbon Capture
Federal government backstops carbon price in first-of-its-kind deal | BNN Bloomberg
A Calgary carbon capture company has signed a first-of-its-kind carbon offtake agreement with the federal government, a significant milestone that some say could help unlock future private-sector investments in decarbonization projects.
American Airlines will pay to bury 10,000 tons of CO2 underground | The Verge
The airline will pay a startup that’s basically mummifying plant matter to clean up carbon dioxide emissions.
[Comment] Sounds like a rather intensive process making me wonder about energy efficiency.
Frontier Carbon Removal Fund Makes New $46.6 Million Direct Air Capture | BNN Bloomberg
An effort backed by companies including Stripe, Alphabet Inc. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. has locked its first major contracts with startups that use machines to remove carbon from the air.
Orsted Initiates Denmark’s First Full-Scale Carbon Capture Project | greentechlead
[Excerpt] The project focuses on capturing and storing carbon emissions from the Asnæs Power Station in Kalundborg and the straw-fired unit at Avedore Power Station in Greater Copenhagen. With a 20-year contract from the Danish Energy Agency secured in May 2023, the initiative is set to annually capture 430,000 tonnes of biogenic CO2 starting from early 2026.
US DOE provides $890 million for 3 carbon capture projects on power plants | DOE
The sites selected for award negotiation include Project Tundra, which will capture CO2 from the coal-fired power plant in North Dakota; the Sutter decarbonization project, which will capture CO2 from a 550-megawatt natural gas power plant in California; and the Baytown carbon capture and storage project, which plans to capture CO2 from a gas power plant in Texas.
The Grid
Michigan just passed a 100% clean electricity by 2040 law | Electrek
Michigan has become the 12th state to pass landmark legislation that sets a 100% clean electricity deadline for utilities. It requires Michigan utilities to source 15% of electricity from clean energy sources such as wind or solar through 2029. That requirement will then increase to 50% by 2030, 60% by 2035, and 100% by 2040.
Urban Design & BuildingS
US residential heat pump sales pass gas furnaces for first time as interest in efficiency tech surges: IEA | Utility Dive
In the United States last year, residential heat pump sales exceeded gas furnaces for the first time, making up 53% of heating system sales.
New local initiative brings industry together to advance emissions-neutral buildings in Alberta | enbix
Building, construction and renovation professionals interested in learning about how to significantly reduce emissions from buildings in Alberta, can now benefit from the support of a new local initiative: Emissions- Neutral Buildings Information Exchange (ENBIX).
Canadian startup unveils residential air source heat pump for cold climates | pv magazine
Terravis Energy said its heat pump prototype uses difluoromethane (R32) as the refrigerant and has a seasonal coefficient of performance (SCOP) of approximately 3.0 under Ontario’s environmental conditions.
Massachusetts’ car economy costs $64 billion, study finds | Harvard Gazette
[Excerpt] The authors say their goal is to demonstrate the total costs of driving so that information can be used for comparison when held up against other types of transit investments, like bus, subway, and train systems.
In Paris, use of cycle paths has doubled in one year | Le Monde
The use of cycle lanes continues to grow strongly since the Covid-19 pandemic. During rush hour, bicycles outnumber cars on some of the capital’s main roads.
[Comment] I also read that Paris banned the use of shared e-scooters earlier this year. At peak, there were 15,000 of them in the city. People have clearly shifted to dockless bike-sharing instead. A likely contributor to the increased use of cycle paths.
Getting doored is a cyclist’s worst fear, but next-gen car tech aims to curb it | Electrek
[Excerpt] Getting doored is dangerous business for cyclists, especially in dense urban areas where cyclists ride next to parked cars, or use bike lanes adjacent to parked cars.While some cars have exit warning systems to protect cyclists, next-gen cars from Volkswagen and Ford attempts to push that technology a bit further.
[Comment] This is really only a problem in places where engineers are not trained to be transportation engineers, such as the US and Canada. If there wasn’t such a bias to cars in the way cities are designed, bikes could be safely separated from cars and this fancy technology wouldn’t be required in the first place.
Report: Building emission reductions plateauing across G20 countries | edie
New research has revealed a stagnation in retrofit rates and reductions of building emissions across leading G20 nations, including the UK. While emissions reduction in the built sector has decreased across several G20 nations, including the UK, France, and Germany, progress has reversed in the US with built sector emissions now on the rise.
Scotland outlines plans to end fossil-fuelled building heating by 2045 | edie
The Scottish Government has drafted proposals for a new Heat in Buildings Bill, confirming that new mandatory energy efficiency requirements are in the pipeline, as well as a more detailed plan to phase out oil and gas boilers.
[UK] Future Homes Standard: All new homes must be ‘net zero ready’ by 2025 | Current
The UK government has published its Future Homes and Buildings Standards consultation emphasising that all new homes must be “net zero ready” from 2025. Heat pumps must be standard on new homes.
Octopus partnership to build energy bill-free homes | Current
Octopus has partnered with housebuilder The Hill Group to develop 89 homes with no energy bills for a minimum of five years in Essex.
Small Modular Reactors
Palisades owner plans for two more reactors at shuttered nuclear plant on Lake Michigan | Detroit News
A nuclear power company seeking to restart the Palisades Nuclear Power Plant in southwest Michigan has plans to build two additional small reactors to nearly double the capacity of the site.
Energy Storage
Battery prices down 14% this year, says BloombergNEF | pv magazine
BloombergNEF says it has recorded a 14% decline in battery prices this year, mainly due to cheaper raw materials, following an unprecedented rise in 2022.
Scatec starts operating 1,140MWh co-located BESS in South Africa | Energy Storage News
Norway-based independent power producer (IPP) Scatec has started operations on three solar-plus-storage projects in South Africa, totalling 1,140MWh of BESS capacity. Located in the Northern Cape province, the Kenhardt project consists of three solar plants and a battery energy storage system (BESS) with a capacity of 225MW/1,140MWh.
$1 billion battery plant announced for Maple Ridge, B.C. | CTV News
A billion-dollar battery cell production plant in Maple Ridge, B.C., will produce up to 135 million batteries each year as part of Canada’s push toward clean technology. The new plant will produce high-performance lithium-cell batteries found in numerous products, including vacuums, medical devices, and power and gardening tools.
The eye-watering payments being made to big batteries to squash huge solar duck | RenewEconomy
[Excerpt] The payments itemised by AEMO to Neoen’s Collie battery – which will use Tesla Megapack technology – equate to around $304,000 a day.
Liddell to host giant battery after AGL and Akaysha win Australia’s biggest capacity tender | RenewEconomy
BlackRock’s Akaysha to build Australia’s biggest four hour battery, and AGL to install a huge battery at Liddell after winning tender to fill gap from Eraring closure.
This 330kW battery generator uses a giant kite to charge itself | Electrek
If you had to read that headline twice, let me assure you: I had to read Kitepower’s website a few times myself. Kitepower is doing something very different. The best way to describe it is probably a “wind winch.”
Tesla secures massive 1.6 GWh Megapack order for giant project | Electrek
Tesla has secured a massive Megapack order for a new giant energy storage project that will likely become the largest in the world. The project in question is the Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub (MREH), which is located just outside of Melbourne.
Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners’ 1GWh BESS project in Scotland ready to break ground | Energy Storage News
Renewable energy investor Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners (CIP) has confirmed that its 500MW/1,000MWh battery energy storage system (BESS) in Scotland, UK, is ready to commence construction.
Planning approval granted in Western Australia for state’s flagship 2GWh battery storage project | Energy Storage News
[Excerpt] Located at the site of Collie Power Station, a coal-fired power plant scheduled for decommissioning in 2027, the battery storage project is one of two being funded with AU$2.3 billion (US$1.52 billion) from the Western Australia State Budget 2023-2024.
Octopus to deploy up to 1.5GW of BESS in Italy with Nexta Capital | Energy Storage News
UK-based utility and IPP Octopus Energy has entered the energy storage market in Italy, forming a joint venture (JV) with developer Nexta Capital to deploy up to 1.5GW of BESS.
Australian state allocates 350 MW of solar, 4,000 MWh of storage in tender | pv magazine
Five energy infrastructure projects representing 750 MW of renewable energy generation and 524 MW/4,192 MWh of long-duration storage have been successful to the New South Wales government’s latest tender round, as it prepares for the exit of coal-fired power generation from the Australian state’s electricity grid.
World’s biggest eight-hour lithium battery wins NSW long duration storage tender | RenewEconomy
Another two eight hour lithium batteries have won contracts under the NSW government’s long duration storage tender, including one that will compete to be the biggest battery project in the country, in terms of megawatt hours of storage.
Solar and Wind
Solar’s stunning year: BNEF says 413GW of new PV capacity to be installed in 2023 | RenewEconomy
The solar industry is installing new capacity at record volumes around the globe, causing leading energy research firm BloombergNEF to again increase its solar build forecast for 2023 to 413GW as module prices plumb record lows.
EWEC commissions 2 GW solar plant in Abu Dhabi | pv magazine
Abu Dhabi government officials last week inaugurated the 2 GW Dhafra Solar Photovoltaic Independent Power Project, located roughly 35 kilometers from United Arab Emirates’ capital. The plant consists of four million bifacial solar panels and is claimed to be the world’s largest single-site solar power plant.
Siemens snags massive government bailout amid deepening wind turbine woes | RenewEconomy
The German government has agreed to backstop energy giant Siemens Energy to the tune of €7.5 billion as part of a larger €15 billion package designed to help the company overcome ongoing turmoil in its wind turbine unit Siemens Gamesa.
Wind power industry in moment of reckoning as stocks fall and earnings crumble | CNBC
In a report published last week, Allianz Research noted that the eight largest renewable energy firms in the world reported a combined total $3 billion decrease in assets in the first half of the year. “The whole sector is grappling with rising construction and financing costs, quality-control problems and supply-chain issues,” the report said.
Octopus launches £3 billion offshore wind fund following Tokyo Gas investment | Current
[Excerpt] Focussing on Europe, the fund will invest in development, construction, and operational stage offshore and floating offshore wind farms, as well as companies looking to build new projects.
Brazil’s solar capacity hits 34.9 GW, surpassing wind in national energy mix | pv magazine
Solar, at 34.9 GW of installed capacity, now accounts for 15.8% of Brazil’s energy mix, ranking second after hydroelectric plants at 49%, but ahead of wind power at 12.2%, according to the Brazilian Association of Photovoltaic Solar Energy (Absolar).
Solar generation to surpass hydropower in the US in 2024 | RenewEconomy
Solar generation has increased at an average rate of 44% a year in the US between 2009 to 2022 – and new data shows it’s on track to overtake hydro on the grid.
Orsted to proceed with mega Hornsea 3 North Sea wind farm project | Reuters
Orsted (ORSTED.CO) said on Wednesday it had made a final investment decision on the Hornsea 3 project off Britain’s coast, indicating it will proceed with what will become the world’s largest offshore wind farm. The project, which (at 700MW) will have capacity to power more than 3.3 million UK homes and is expected to cost 70-75 billion Danish crowns ($10.3-$11.0 billion), is targeted for completion by the end of 2027.
Transportation
Shipping Giants Want an End Date for Fossil Fuel-Only Vessels | BNN Bloomberg
Europe’s biggest container lines want to phase out ships powered only by fossil fuels. The proposal was announced Friday in a joint statement from Mediterranean Shipping Co., A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, CMA CGM SA and Hapag-Lloyd AG — four of the world’s top five carriers. Copenhagen-based Maersk has taken delivery of a vessel that can run on green methanol and has another 24 arriving through 2027, and has a target of net zero GHG emissions by 2040.
Ford shrinks its EV battery factory plans in Michigan | The Verge
Ford will no longer invest the full $3.5 billion for a new Michigan battery plant as the company faces rising labor costs and slowing electric vehicle demand.
New Jersey to ban ICE cars and trucks from 2035 | Electrek
New Jersey joins a growing list of nine states, including California, Vermont, New York, Washington, and Oregon, to ban gasoline-burning cars – eventually, at least.
A Las Vegas-LA electric high-speed rail line just got $3B to break ground | Electrek
Brightline West, a future electric high-speed rail line between Las Vegas and Los Angeles, is being awarded $3 billion by the Biden administration.
Nissan to build electric versions of two best-selling crossovers, the Juke and Qashqai | Electrek
Nissan plans to build electric versions for two of its best-selling crossovers in the UK. According to a new report, Nissan will build an electric Juke and Qashqai at its Sunderland factory.
Daimler eCascadias are now to Coke as Tesla Semi electric trucks are to Pepsi | Electrek
Pepsi was the first company to add Tesla Semis to its fleet, but Coke just went for Daimler Freightliner eCascadias. Daimler Truck North America has delivered 20 Freightliner eCascadia Class 8 tractors to Reyes Coca-Cola Bottling, a West Coast and Midwest bottler and distributor of Coca-Cola brands in Downey, California.
New technology installed beneath Detroit street can charge electric vehicles as they drive | AP News
Crews have installed what’s billed as the nation’s first wireless-charging public roadway for electric vehicles beneath a street just west of downtown Detroit. Copper inductive charging coils allow vehicles equipped with receivers to charge up their batteries while driving, idling or parking above the coils.
Tesla launches Supercharger congestion fee at $1 per min at 90% charge | Electrek
[Excerpt] Most people don’t charge all the way to 100% anyway, and the last 20% is much slower to get to, so this would have the potential to greatly reduce the average charging session time.
Google maps adds EV charging stations | CNBC
[Excerpt] The company is bolstering its EV charging station feature this week, allowing drivers to see when a charging station was used most recently in order to decrease the chances of them driving to a station that does not work.
Rolls-Royce opts for SAF, not hydrogen in large aircraft | pv magazine
Rolls-Royce has told pv magazine that it prefers sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) for large commercial flights, but it continues to invest in hydrogen for mid-size aircraft in partnership with easyJet.
Tritium installs 33 “hands-free” autonomous fast chargers in California port | The Driven
Queensland headquartered fast charging pioneer Tritium has completed the installation of 33 of its chargers at the Port of Long Beach, California, which are equipped with mechanised charging connectors to support electric-drive terminal tractors.
Ford and Xcel energy are installing 30k almost-free chargers for fleet customers | Electrek
Ford Pro and Xcel energy will collaborate to deploy 30,000 EV charging ports for commercial customers by 2030, and the best part is that qualifying business customers can get most upfront costs of this infrastructure offset by Xcel Energy.
Ford hits new EV sales record in Nov as Lightning becomes bestselling electric truck | Electrek
[Excerpt] F-150 Lightning sales more than doubled (+113%) in November, with 4,393 units sold. With the growth, Ford’s Lightning is the bestselling electric pickup through November, edging out the Rivian R1T.
Policy
US DOE launches US$3.5 billion funding opportunity for battery manufacturing | Energy Storage News
[Excerpt] The funding will go towards new, retrofitted, and expanded domestic facilities for battery-grade processed critical minerals, battery precursor materials, battery components, and cell and pack manufacturing, the DOE said. It is the second phase of a total US$6 billion package