Plus: The most important US energy chart; mammoth solar factory planned for China; Tesla rocks EV sales
Hi everyone,
Firstly, Happy Easter all! I hope this email finds you well.
Second, I need your help. Tell me what you want me to post/write about – tell me what you want to see more of/less of. COVID-19 is definitely slowing the number of stories that are meaningful markers of the energy transition. This week you will see I’ve included a separate section of stories highlighting how the pandemic is affecting our energy system. Frankly, it is hard to find stories that are NOT pandemic related. But don’t worry – the other important headlines can still be found near the bottom.
If you (Canadians) only have time for one story, read Rex Murphy’s piece (first post). For those already dismissing what he has to say, please don’t tune out. The world will only become more polarized when we no longer have the will to listen to someone with a different perspective.
And for all the non-Canadians, the next best read would be the US energy consumption chart/story.
Have comments? Please do reach out. Stories you think I should share? Send them my way please!
As always, continue to forward on to others and encourage them to subscribe.
Thanks,
Peter
Rex Murphy: A COVID-19 wake-up call: Canada must stop this self-destruction | National Post
Comment: I’ll admit I do enjoy Rex Murphy. If you’re Canadian, this is worth your time to read. I’ll say it again..for those already dismissing what he has to say, please don’t tune out. The world will only become more polarized when we no longer have the will to listen to someone with a different perspective.
Let me be clear: I don’t agree with his views about not tending to what he calls “global warming”. However, the pandemic’s impact on the oil and gas industry is only just beginning to unfold. While post-COVID demand may spring back (I think less fast than some), the effects could be longer lasting.
For those who quietly want to celebrate the demise of the oil and gas industry in Alberta, think again. The last downturn resulted in 100,000 job losses by some estimates. Most of those jobs evaporated permanently. Those who managed to find work again, took in far less. Rough math suggests Ottawa would have seen a $5 billion annual reduction to revenue from income taxes alone, not counting royalties and other resource rents paid to governments. To put that in perspective, the estimated loss in revenue made the deficit around one third larger. In today’s ‘spare no expense’ COVID aid packages it doesn’t sound like much, but governments are going to want economies running on all cylinders (excuse the ICE vehicle reference) to help pay for all that debt we’re racking up.
So here’s the thing: economies like Canada need a healthy oil and gas industry to help pay for the transition to a lower carbon future. Those who want a fast transition, (for a reality check, listen to Vaclav Smil) the considerable government subsidies required will be made more affordable by governments taking in healthy revenues from the oil and gas sector.
Pandemic stories showing energy system impact
Oil & Gas
- Goldman on how the ‘largest economic shock of our lifetimes’ will permanently alter energy markets | CNBC
- Equinor raises $5 billion in debt to help weather downturn | Reuters
Renewable Energy
- Coronavirus crushing global forecasts for wind and solar power | Bloomberg via JWN Energy
- The coronavirus is hitting renewable energy supply chains, factories | CNBC
- WoodMac: Coronavirus Could Delay Construction of 5 Gigawatts of US Utility-Scale Solar | Greentech Media
Electric Vehicles
- Global EV sales will drop 43% in 2020 due to COVID-19, lower oil prices: WoodMac | Utility Dive
Energy Efficiency
- Energy efficiency efforts are shutting down due to COVID-19, threatening jobs and savings | Utility Dive
Utilities
- Con Edison reaches 170 confirmed COVID-19 cases, 3 deaths, as risks rise for utility workers | Utility Dive
The most important US energy chart of the year is out: 8 big takeaways | Electrek
[Excerpt] Takeaway 4. You don’t need a 1:1 ratio of electric to replace petroleum. That ratio is more like 1:5
The whole US transportation industry uses only 5.93 quads of energy to propel vehicles around. While it takes 28.3 quads of mostly petroleum to do so today, replacing internal combustion or jet engines with their much more efficient electric alternatives means you’d only need about 6 quads of electricity to produce the same movement. That can currently be made by wind, solar, or hydro (if they weren’t doing other things).
To put it another way: to get rid of all of the petroleum energy used to run transportation in the US, you wouldn’t even have to double the amount of wind, solar and hydro.
World’s largest solar PV module factory planned for China | RenewEconomy
Excerpt: Chinese sustainable energy company GCL System Integration is planning to build what would be the world’s largest solar PV module factory, capable of producing 60GW of solar panels each year. In comparison, the world’s currently biggest solar panel manufacturer, JinkoSolar, has 16GW of manufacturing capacity.
Tesla sales in China hit record high during the pandemic, represent 25% of country’s EV sales | Electrek
Excerpt: Tesla managed the result in a month when the overall passenger car sales in China, which is the biggest auto market in the world, were down more than 40%.
In order to keep its deliveries going, the company has ramped its home delivery service, which enables customers to take delivery of their new car while limiting their travels.
Furthermore, Tesla has also started offering “contactless test drives.” It consists of giving customers access to test drive vehicles by scheduling an appointment online or by phone and having the vehicle unlocked through Tesla’s mobile app.
That way, they never have to be in direct contact with Tesla’s salespeople. Tesla even provides in-car video instructions on the center screen.
Appetite to sign corporate PPAs will be curbed | BNEF
Nathaniel Bullard of BloombergNEF:
The appetite to sign more of these agreements will certainly be curbed. Falling power demand should depress power prices in most markets, making grid power more attractive. (Although in many places, renewables will still at least be competitive, if not the lowest-cost option.) From a CFO’s perspective right now, “sustainability” is probably more about keeping a business going than examining its electricity mix.
Keeping the lights on matters most right now. We’ll see if that imperative bends the corporate renewable power purchase market, and how far and how fast it does so.
Global Climate Conference Postponed as World Grapples With Virus | Bloomberg
Excerpt: The COP26 summit, short for 26th session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, was expected to be the next major global climate conference after the 2015 Paris Agreement. It was supposed to mark the year when nations submitted long-term pollution goals to put the world on track to have emissions peak by mid-century.
This year’s summit was also supposed give delegates an opportunity to finish the work of the 2019 Madrid conference, which ended without an agreement on a framework for a global carbon market.
COP26 was scheduled to be held in Glasgow at the SEC arena. This week, the Scottish government announced the venue would be turned into a field hospital to treat virus victims.
Yes, Electric Vehicles Are Better for the Environment in 95 Percent of the World | Popular Mechanics
Excerpt: The researchers say average “lifetime“ emissions from electric cars are up to 70% lower than petrol cars in countries like Sweden and France (where most electricity comes from renewables and nuclear), and around 30% lower in the UK. They say the picture for electric cars will become steadily more favourable as nations shift to clean electricity.
Other headlines of interest…
Energy Storage
- TransAlta adding Tesla batteries to Pincher Creek wind farm in Alberta | TransAlta
Hydrogen
- ‘Hydrogen Economy’ Offers Promising Path to Decarbonization | BNEF
- Hydrogen-fuelled climate goals need radical carbon price hike | JWN Energy
Solar (& Battery)
- A new solar-panel plant could have capacity to meet half of global demand | JWN Energy
Wind (& Battery)
- Wind-Power Industry Heads for Record Year | BNN Bloomberg
- Equinor powers ahead with floating wind turbines despite oil crash | Reuters
Transport
- Trump administration slashes required annual fuel economy increase to 1.5%, potentially harming EV market, advocates say | Utility Dive
- California approves Nuro’s driverless vehicles to begin testing | Smart Cities Dive
Transition
- BP Agrees to Draft Climate Change Shareholder Resolution | MorningStar
- Ann Arbor, Michigan’s $1B climate plan explores resiliency in a time of crisis | Utility Dive
Finance
- Barclays sets 2050 net-zero climate policy, covering operations and investments | Reuters
The Wind Tree | by New World Wind
Comment: I don’t expect this design to be especially popular. The price tag is just under 50,000 Euros and the promo material says the 10.8kW is enough for 15 100W street lamps or “83% of a French household’s power consumption outside of air conditioning”.