Plus: why I now need to learn sociology too; Idaho approves $2B in wind; Ireland subsidizes solar + storage
Hi Everyone,
I watched a young lady practice parallel parking with her mom in an electric Nissan Leaf in front of our house this past week. It reminded me the availability of all-electric cars are still a problem in Canada and with salespeople poorly informed or even discouraging them, you’ll need to be pretty determined and patient to get one. Anyone have first hand experience? Let me know.
I include in this week a bit more of a blog feature on the Oxford paper that provides advice to oil companies on how to adapt to the transition in our energy system. I’d be interested in hearing from you to get your take.
Feel free to forward on to others you think might be interested.
Thanks,
Peter
HYDROGEN: CAN IT BE FUEL OF FUTURE?
Toyota believes it is and is busy developing fuel cell vehicles
Excerpt: Toyota is not the only automaker looking to hydrogen. According to a report by market research firm Research and Markets, at least 11 automakers are eyeing a 2021 rollout of hydrogen vehicles, including Hyundai, Kia, Honda, Mercedes-Benz, and BMW. Calgary Herald
Oxford’s adaptation advice for oil companies
I highly recommend you read this paper from Oxford University’s Institute for Energy Studies: The rise of renewables and energy transition: what adaptation strategy for oil companies and oil-exporting countries? I really can’t do justice to summarizing it’s 20 pages. Here are some things that resonated for me.
It makes a compelling case for the uncertainties associated with the speed of transition towards a greater proportion of renewables in the energy mix as well as advice for both oil companies and oil exporting countries. I include a key excerpt to whet your appetite:
“We argue that oil companies need to adopt a strategy that is likely to be successful under a wide set of future market conditions. We acknowledge that moving beyond core business is risky for oil companies but at the same time a ‘wait-and-watch’ strategy can be costly. Instead, oil companies need to gradually ‘extend’ their business model rather than completely ‘shift’ from hydrocarbons to renewables. This business model extension implies building an integrated portfolio, including both hydrocarbon and low-carbon technologies assets. Given that the endgame (in terms of winning technologies) is unclear, oil companies should focus on a combination of competing low-carbon technologies rather than investing in a specific technology.”
Those of you who have been following me for a while know I tend to focus on the changes that are ACTUALLY happening – and not so much on forecasts, politics or evidence of climate change, for that matter. However, this paper reinforces a point I knew about, but had difficulty articulating – that the transition is “multidimensional, complex, non-linear, non-deterministic, and highly uncertain. Although energy transition is often assessed based on the speed of changes in the tangible dimension, it is a multilayered process with multiple actors”.
So whereas it has been easier to ‘report’ on the tangible dimension, the other dimensions are more difficult to read the signals and ‘connect the dots’. These have to do with “(ii) actors and their conduct, which comprise new strategies and investment patterns, as well as changing coalitions and capabilities of actors; and (iii) socio-technical regimes that contain formal regulations and policies, institutions as well as mindset and belief systems, discourse and views about normality and social practices.”
For these latter elements, I would point to shifting values through the rise of millennials and how that shows up in government policy. I’d also add aspects related to the rise of populism (notwithstanding the bit of a breather it has taken), growing wealth inequality, and even the polarization of debate – where people are increasingly losing the will to listen to someone with a different perspective, reinforced by the echo chambers of social media. How these all of these may operate either independently or in combination with the others, including the “synergistic advances in multiple domains at once, such as 3D printing, blockchain, computing, nanotechnology, materials science, and biological and genetic engineering” – suggest there is a lot of things at play.
So I have a new challenge – watching more closely for evidence of movement in the social dimensions, specifically that connect to new attitudes and norms related to our use of energy – for mobility, heating, cooling and products – and the implications for oil and gas.
To get us started, I include a few along these lines this week. I’m interested in hearing your thoughts.
Horrific Fires In Northern California Do Little To Change Attitudes On Climate Change
Excerpt: Electric cars and renewable energy won’t save us. Only concerted action that involves virtually everyone alive has a chance — albeit a slim one — of averting a climatic disaster of epic proportions. If anyone has any ideas how to get people to stop pointing fingers at each other and start listening to each other for a change, please share them. The need is great and the urgency is extreme. Clean Technica
Losing Earth: The Decade We Almost Stopped Climate Change
The impressive drone videos in this article are what got me looking through this article. Just so you know, I have not read this impressively long article by the New York Times.
Canada Scales Back Carbon-Tax Plans
Excerpt: The amendments to the carbon-tax regime were relayed to business representatives last week, according to two people familiar with the briefing and confirmed by government officials Wednesday. Under the changes, industrial companies would now have fewer of their emissions — 20% versus the original 30% — subject to the levy. The carbon tax takes effect next year, and starts at 10 Canadian dollars (US$7.68) a metric ton and rises gradually to C$50 a ton in 2022. Wall Street Journal
Inside the life of Waymo’s driverless test family
A Chrysler Pacifica minivan equipped with Waymo’s self-driving technology being tested at Waymo’s facility in Atwater, Calif. (Julia Wang / Associated Press)
Excerpt: All rides are free for volunteers in the Phoenix test, but the Waymo app recently started to show hypothetical prices. A ride to Kyla’s nearby school shows up as $5, for example, while a longer 11.3-mile trip lists a cost of $19.15. That rate of roughly $1.70 per mile is comparable to Uber or Lyft in Phoenix but less than the roughly $2.50-per-mile rate charged by local taxi companies.
Without human drivers to pay, however, the price of a Waymo could go lower — much lower. Tasha Keeney, an analyst at ARK Invest, says that Waymo could choose to offer an autonomous ride-hailing service today at around 70 cents a mile. Over time, she says, robotaxis should get even cheaper — down to 35 cents a mile by 2020, especially if Waymo’s technology proves sturdy enough to need few human safety monitors overseeing the autonomous vehicles remotely. LA Times
Idaho approves $2 billion, 1,150 MW in wind projects
Excerpt: Idaho’s approval is the final general signoff needed for RMP to move forward with the new renewable generation — Wyoming approved the projects in April and Utah gave its OK in June. Oregon and Washington have also indicated support for the company’s Energy Vision 2020 plan as part of parent company PacifiCorp’s 2017 Integrated Resource Plan. Utility Dive
Ireland to incentivise solar-plus-storage with household grants
Excerpt: Homeowners in Ireland can now access grants worth hundreds of euros to fund the installation of solar and energy storage systems as the government launches its first micro-generation scheme for the technology.
This pilot scheme offers €700 (~US$818.5) per kWp of solar installed up to 2kWp, at which point any installation up to 4kWp must include a battery storage system for which a fixed €1,000 grant is now also available. Energy Storage News
Harley-Davidson pivots to lightweight electric bikes
Excerpt: Harley-Davidson Inc. on Monday unveiled a plan to expand motorcycle ridership and increase global sales with bikes that will be hardly recognizable as Harleys – among them electric scooters and small bikes destined for foreign markets.
The plan, perhaps the most aggressive in the company’s 115-year history, is part of a broad effort to reverse eroding market share, attract new riders to replace older ones aging out of the sport, and correct a stock slide that has seen Harley’s per-share value drop nearly in half over the last four years. LA Times
UPS partners with startup Thor to build two new electric trucks
Excerpt: UPS has so many electrification programs at this point that it is hard to keep up and yet, it is adding another one. The parcel delivery company is partnering with Los Angeles-based startup Thor to build a new electric truck. Electrek