Energy Shift: the most rapid transition forecast by DNV GL

Plus: 14,000 hydrogen trucks coming; Bristol’s £1 billion net zero finance bid

Hi Everyone,

Thanks to Wayne, a regular reader of Energy Shift, I offer this intriguing story that I just felt I had to share. I encourage you to read this one posted by BBC Future, from the Conversation and written by by Alf Hornborg:

How localisation can solve climate change | BBC Future
Visions of a globalised future with renewable energy are wholly unrealistic unless we change the economy.

The idea put forward offers a compelling idea: issue a new currency alongside the current one, but only able to be used to make purchases produced within a specified radius of the purchase point. Alf also calls for this currency to be issued as a universal basic income, but let’s not get hung up on this aspect as I’m not sure the pairing is necessary for the other to work. I find it hard suspending judgement and pointing out all the ways it wouldn’t work, yet tackling climate change demands entertaining new ideas and that’s why I thought you should hear him out. Transportation after all, accounts for more than a quarter of all final energy use and oil figures prominently in future demand.

I admit I’m having a brain cramp just trying to imagine how this concept would pretzel supply chains. Locally sourced produce is one thing, but manufactured items are often comprised of parts with mixed origin. How is such an item to be classified? Blockchain may offer a solution for tracking provenance, but this would require tracking on a whole new level.

Tell me what you think, please.

As for the rest, the DNV GL report is one to consider digging into. Scan the rest for ones you’re interested in.

Lastly, please send me stories you think merit posting. And forward on to others you think would be interested and encourage them to subscribe.

Thanks,
Peter

Energy system to transition rapidly: within a generation | DNV GL

Comment: I normally steer clear of forecasts. Yet this one is worth a look if only for clues to how a rapid transition might be possible and the things needed to put us on more aggressive decarbonization pathways. They openly admit it is more aggressive than other ‘outlooks’, such as by IEA, Shell, BP and others. You’ll need to submit your information to download the report. Check out their download centre for the various options (full 280 page report, executive summary & sector specific). They make all their chart data available as well.

Excerpt: Our latest report reveals:

A rapid transition characterized by widespread electrification, with over 60% of that power supplied by wind and solar PV
By mid-century the energy mix will be split almost equally between fossil and non-fossil sources
Oil declines steeply after 2030, with gas taking over as the largest energy source before flattening out from the mid-2030s
Emissions will continue to rise until 2025 and will be far from net zero by 2050

Britain to fund steel in $480 million climate change package | Reuters

Comment: Decarbonizing the steel industry is among the tougher nuts to crack. Changing the fuel used to hydrogen is a focus of this funding, but they also want to look at capturing carbon from emissions. Existing steel mills have long life spans and retrofitting has the usual economic, if not technical barriers. Yet this is one of the few places where government realizes what’s needed for both for the climate and jobs. See more details in the paper asking for feedback to inform program design.

Excerpt: Britain announced 390 million pounds ($480 million) of spending for low carbon technology on Thursday, most of which will go to the steel industry in a fund to help it reduce emissions. The announcement of the 250 million pound Clean Steel Fund was accompanied by a 100 million pound fund to develop the production of hydrogen, which emits no greenhouse gas when burned.

BP’s CEO Says He’ll Sell Oil Projects to Meet Paris Climate Accord Goals | Fortune

Comment: I chalk this up to investor pressure. And it is not just BP doing this. Oil companies are increasingly highlighting asset sales that have the effect of reducing their overall emission intensity. Yet selling high emission projects to what are often smaller players may not bode well for overall emissions. Spending on emissions controls may not be as strong as it would be otherwise, especially in less regulated jurisdictions.

Excerpt: Still, the plan may prompt questions about how selling assets to another producer can help curb global emissions. For example, Dudley said on the call that the sale last month of BP’s oil and gas fields in Alaska helped it reduce its carbon footprint. But the buyer plans to invest more in the fields than BP would have, potentially increasing production and boosting emissions in the process.

Bristol launches ambitious £1 billion net zero energy finance bid | Current News

Excerpt: Bristol has launched an ambitious plan to raise up to £1 billion of investment to turn it into the UK’s first carbon neutral city. Bristol City Leap, a project co-led by Bristol City Council and local energy supplier Bristol Energy, has launched a global search for organisations willing to invest in a joint venture that will help deliver a net zero energy system in the city by 2030.

Meet the CEO who’s building 14K hydrogen semitrucks | ClimateWire

Comment: I can’t say it any better than Maggie, one of my readers: “Holy snap!”

Excerpt: Nikola Motor Co., a 5-year-old firm in Phoenix that most Americans have never heard of, says it has an order to lease 14,000 semitrucks that will run on hydrogen, an assertion that, if realized, could mark the start of a significant slowdown in transportation carbon emissions.

Nikola plans to start full production of its semitrucks in 2021 and have 14,000 rigs on the road by 2028. It’s also starting to build a network of 700 hydrogen stations across the country to refuel its new fleet. Company executives say the network should be complete by 2028. That goal alone is remarkable. Currently, there are only 400 hydrogen stations worldwide, according to IEA.

Ontario IESO launches its first-ever local electricity market | Energy Storage News

Excerpt: Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO), is set to launch a demonstration of how solar panels, energy storage and customer-sited demand side response (DSR) connected to the distribution network can be used to drive down costs of the IESO’s transmission operations.

Comment: This is a first for Canada, I believe. Someone please tell me if I’ve got this wrong.

Other headlines of interest…

Energy Storage

Big battery system inches N.Y. toward green energy goal | BNN Bloomberg
Why Australia’s biggest battery said no to an offer too good to refuse | RenewEconomy
Battery storage systems at ‘the edge of profitability,’ as German households reach 1GWh of capacity | Energy Storage News

Solar (& Battery)

Los Angeles OKs a deal for record-cheap solar power and battery storage | Los Angeles Times
New Zealand’s largest solar farm to be built on water | pv magazine International

Wind (& Battery)

Neoen unveils massive wind, solar battery project in South Australia | RenewEconomy
Unfurling The Waste Problem Caused By Wind Energy | NPR
Kissing the Sky: The Pros and Cons of Ultra-Tall Wind Turbine Towers | Greentech Media

Transport

Meet the CEO who’s building 14K hydrogen semitrucks | ClimateWire
VW unveils production version of ID.3 electric car | Electrek
Tesla battery researcher unveils new cell that could last 1 million miles in ‘robot taxis’ | Electrek
Hydrogen water shuttle in France to transport passengers in Nantes | Hydrogen Fuel News

Transition

Most new natural gas plants will be more expensive than renewable alternatives | USA Today
Huge Western coal burner ponders shift to renewables | ClimateWire
Northern Ireland smashes renewable generation records | Current News
Scottish government unveils £3 billion investment portfolio in slew of green finance policy | Current News
New environment minister says Japan should stop using nuclear power | Reuters

Carbon Capture

U.S. Department of Energy Announces $110M for Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage | Department of Energy [half the money is going to coal and gas power plant projects]

Circular Economy

India set to ban single-use and disposable plastics | Nikkei Asian Review