Energy Shift: oil demand is back – why?

Plus: “dynamic charging” needed for EVs; General Fusion lands $130 million investment; Daimler commits €60B to go all electric by 2030

Hi everyone,

We are getting close to the point when I’ll be taking a break, so just giving you a heads up there may only be one more issue for 2021. It’s been great to take you along on this learning journey. Keep the comments coming. And I welcome you sending me stories. Just a few more subscribers would be a nice way to finish up the year, so continue to forward this on to others you think would be interested.

I didn’t get to all my usual news feeds this week, so this issue is a bit abbreviated.

Thanks and have a great week,
Peter


Observations & Comments

Last week I  posted a story that may have been missed if you weren’t looking closely. The world added 290 gigawatts of renewable power in 2021. It’s an impressive number – about one quarter of the US grid capacity. However, renewable capacity additions are just soaking up the new growth in demand and so are not yet putting a dent in existing supply. Grids are getting marginally greener – feeding an impressively growing number of electric passenger cars. The milestone of EVs representing 10% of sales globally is just new vehicles. Bloomberg didn’t provide the numbers of new EV sales in 2021, but separately I saw a report that put the number at 5.6 million. So when we see a graph like the one below, you’d think that surely passenger vehicle electrification would be making a dent in oil demand. Yet oil production is back up to near pre-pandemic levels. That means our consumption is also back to pre-pendemic levels. How is this possible you ask? Well, the global passenger vehicle stock is estimated at around 1 billion, most of which are gas-powered. So 5.6 million of new EVs sales represent 0.5% amid the global total of a billion.  And that is just passenger vehicles. Buses, trucks, marine shipping and airplanes all add to the oil demand picture, not to mention all the myriad other consumer products made from oil. Demand for oil remains robust, at least for the time being.

Yet the transition is happening. Imagine a future when most passenger cars are needing to get charged. Will our grids need to be ready in time? What options are there for managing all that demand? It’s why the feature story is worth a quick read. Mentioned is a new concept: that of dynamic charging – again – leveraging smart software – to not simply turn on after peak load, but to be more responsive to grid-level demands. I’ll admit I hadn’t heard of that before. A drum beat you hear from me often: smarter software solutions are needed. A side note: this story comes from Europe. Pay attention to what is going on there as they are ahead in the transition.

Vancouver-based General Fusion just got a big investment boost. Investments like this in fusion technology are rare, so worth highlighting – see the second feature story – also a short read.

Feature Stories

Smart, reactive EV charging critical to avoiding artificial power demand peaks | Current±
Smart EV charging systems must be truly dynamic and reactive to system demands in order to maximise the system benefit available, a panel of stakeholders has concluded.

Bezos-Backed General Fusion Raises $130 Million for Reactor | BNN Bloomberg
General Fusion Inc. raised $130 million from investors including billionaire Jeff Bezos to help develop a commercial reactor.


On the graph above, Nat Bullard offer the following insights from his recent Bloomberg Green blog post. Bloomberg Green (daily email) is free and one I read most days.

  • EVs were 10.8% of sales, an order of magnitude increase in little more than four years since passing 1% in the second quarter of 2017.
  • Those sales are not evenly distributed, however. Europe leads on a percentage basis, with 17.4% of new cars sold with a plug; Asia is second and close to the global average at 12%; the Americas are a distant third, at less than 4%

Finance & Sentiment

Danone-owned dairy giant unveils lifetime carbon emissions for its products | edie
Horizon Organic, the largest USDA certified organic dairy brand in the world, has publicly disclosed the summary of life cycle assessments (LCA) for its whole milk half gallons, in a bid to outline areas of improvement as it strives to become “carbon positive” by 2025.

Dozens of big-name investors including BlackRock join Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative | edie
The Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative now covers more than one-third of assets under management globally, after 43 big names, including BlackRock and the Vanguard Group, signed up. The initiative, which commits members to reaching net-zero financed emissions by 2050 or sooner, announced this weekend that now it has more than 70 members, collectively representing $32trn of assets under management.

Fossil-fuel CEOs strike back with warning on energy transition | Bloomberg via JWN
Buoyed by high oil prices, the bosses of the biggest explorers this week laid out a vision for the energy transition that hinges on more fossil-fuel investment rather than less. The World Petroleum Congress in Houston, an industry showcase, saw last-minute cancellations due to the omicron variant, but it didn’t stop a steady stream of senior executives hammering on the same point: the world will need us for years to come, so let’s invest and produce, or risk more economically damaging price spikes or even social unrest.

Technology

Hydrogen

Woodside sets $7 billion target for expansion into hydrogen, CCS projects | RenewEconomy
Oil and gas giant Woodside will begin expanding its business into lower energy sources, announcing a new investment target to boost its hydrogen and carbon capture and storage capabilities as the company reckons with an accelerating global energy transition out of fossil fuels.

Carbon Capture 

Suncor CEO shines spotlight on oilsands partnership, need for collaboration to cut GHG emissions | JWN Energy
An “unprecedented global collaboration” like the Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero initiative is just the type of partnership needed to drive down emissions, says Suncor Energy Inc.’s chief executive. “I think Canada will be a long-term provider of oil to the world because we are going to solve this and figure this out,” said Mark Little, president and CEO of Suncor. “And we have this unprecedented collaboration to do it.”

Enbridge seeks tax credits for push into hydrogen, carbon capture | Financial Post
[Excerpt] North America’s biggest oil pipeline company, which for years has invested in wind and solar power projects, is also looking at gaining scale and becoming competitive in technologies such as hydrogen production using renewable electricity. To get there, it’s seeking incentives in Canada like the US$35 to US$50 per metric ton of credits for CO2 sequestration and storage that exist in the U.S. under Section 45Q of the Internal Revenue Code, Chief Executive Officer Al Monaco said in an interview.

UK Government opens £64m funding competition for carbon capture innovations | edie
The UK Government has opened a new funding pot for innovators developing direct air capture (DAC) technologies and other greenhouse gas removal systems. The Direct Air Capture and Greenhouse Gas Removal Programme was first announced in June 2020 and, today, the second phase of the funding scheme opened for applications. Applicants are invited to bid for a share of £64m in grant funding.

Energy Storage 

Tesla Powerpacks power new community microgrid pilot project in Canada | Electrek
[Excerpt] The Independent System Electricity Operator (IESO), Opus One Solutions, Elexicon Energy and Marshall Homes have partnered to create the Altona Towns community of 27 homes that comprise a fully integrated microgrid. The specs of the new microgrid include:

  • A 250 kW/500 kWh battery
  • 25 kW of rooftop solar generation
  • An electric vehicle charger
  • Real-time visibility into home end-uses for customers via an app

FlexGen wins 2.1GWh California battery integration deal to mitigate state’s grid disruptions | Energy Storage News
FlexGen Power Systems will provide 2.1GWh of battery storage solutions to a project in California which exemplifies the state’s “leadership” in the transition to a modern, cleaner grid, the company’s CEO has said.

Solar and Wind 

[Australia] Alinta proposes 1,000MW offshore wind farm to help power Portland smelter | RenewEconomy
Alinta Energy is proposing a 1,000MW wind farm off the coast of Portland in Victoria that could help power the Portland aluminium smelter with up to 100 per cent renewables, and inject green energy into the country’s main grid. The $4 billion Spinifex offshore wind project would be sited about 10km off the coast of Portland.

US utility-scale solar, storage prices drop over 12% in past year, but supply chain worries loom: NREL | Utility Dive
The installed cost of solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage systems continued to drop between 2020 and 2021 in the U.S., with utility-scale solar systems seeing a 12.3% price decline, according to a new report from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The cost of residential PV fell 3.3% and commercial rooftop PV systems dropped 10.7%, the report found.

Plan for solar module gigafactory unveiled in France | pv magazine
An industrial area of the southern region of Occitanie has been identified for the construction of a 2 GW factory. The local development agency is currently seeking potential investors.

US bank to lend $500 million for First Solar’s 3 GW fab in India | pv magazine
The U.S. International Development Finance Corp. has offered debt financing to support a 3 GW module manufacturing facility that thin-film PV manufacturer First Solar plans to build in the Indian state of Tamil Nadu.

Swedish OX2 applies to develop 1.7 GW offshore wind farm | OX2
OX2 has submitted an application to develop a 1,700 MW offshore wind farm, called Galatea-Galene, off the coast of Sweden, which would comprise 101 turbines.

TransAlta brings online 206MW Canadian onshore | reNEWS.biz
The Windrise project, located roughly 20km southwest of Claresholm in Alberta, features 43 Siemens Gamesa 4.8MW turbines within an area of approximately 44 square kilometres. It is TransAlta Renewables’ largest wind farm to-date and has a 20-year offtake agreement with the Alberta Electric System Operator (AESO).

 

Transportation 

Daimler commits €60 billion to go all electric by 2030 | The Driven
Daimler will commit 60 billion euros ($A97 billion) to “become fully electric before the end of the decade – wherever market conditions permit,” according to a new announcement from the German auto kingpin. By 2025, Daimler says it wants to achieve a target of 50 per cent of new sales consisting of either fully or partially electric vehicles.

Toyota Chooses North Carolina for Its First U.S. Battery Plant | BNN Bloomberg
Toyota Motor Corp. will break ground on its first battery factory in the U.S. at a mega-site in North Carolina, joining an industrywide push as automakers accelerate efforts to electrify their fleets. The Japanese company will invest $1.29 billion in the automotive battery manufacturing facility, which is scheduled to start production in 2025.

53 US utilities will build a nationwide fast-charging EV network by end of 2023 | Electrek
The National Electric Highway Coalition, a newly formed body made up of 51 investor-owned electric companies, one electric cooperative, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, announced yesterday that it will provide electric vehicle fast-charging ports along major US travel corridors by the end of 2023.

Ivy Charging Network to install 69 EV fast chargers at ONroute in Ontario, Canada | Electric Autonomy  
In a joint agreement that also includes retailer Canadian Tire and Ontario’s Ministry of Transportation, ONroute and Ivy will roll out long-awaited electric vehicle DC fast chargers on Ontario’s 400-series highways — most of them by sometime next summer.

 

Policy

Mayor of London commits £51m to tackling energy efficiency through Warmer Homes scheme | Current±
The Mayor of London is committing £51 million through the Warmer Homes scheme for the rollout of energy efficiency technologies including insulation, ventilation and heat pumps across the capital. Of this funding, £40.2 million has been secured from the government to rollout the technologies from spring 2022, with grants of up to £20,000 on offer for heating, insultation and ventilation improvements.

Biden’s latest executive order calls for a zero-emissions federal fleet by 2027 | Electrek
The Biden administration announced an executive order today focused on reestablishing the US federal government as a leader in sustainability. The sections within the executive order tackle major global issues like climate change, greenhouse gas emissions, and net-zero carbon electricity production. Furthermore, the President has set a 2027 deadline to make all light-duty government fleets zero emissions.