Aug 14, 2023 Energy Shift: Coming late to the party

Plus: Train company pivots away from hydrogen; 7 car makers partner for 30,000 EV chargers; new US solar panel production; CA leads US EV sales

Hi Everyone,

Jump to the first section below for my remarks. You get to hear more than usual from me.
Thanks,
Peter


Coming late to the party: My summer reading reflections

My reading this summer has been all about aspects related to urbanism. Last issue, I put in a plug for the book How to be a Climate Optimist by Chris Turner. While his book is not specifically about urbanism, there are definite threads that connect to cities that are more walkable, bikeable, with good public transit, energy-efficient and dense housing, etc. Exactly what you’d expect in his subtitle: “Blueprints for a better world”.

My next read also comes with my “highly recommended” rating: Strong Towns: A Bottom-up Revolution to Rebuild American Prosperity, by Charles Marohn. This book has really helped change the way I think about the “ecosystem” of ingredients that make up a good city. Though published only just a few years ago (2020), it has created a whole movement, with Strong Towns Chapters in cities all across the US and Canada. There are some excellent videos on the Stong Towns YouTube channel, as well as the offering of a newsletter (I’ve signed up for the weekly digest) and membership.

Next is Charles Marohn’s follow-up book: Confessions of a Recovering Engineer: Transportation for a Strong Town. I loved this book, though acknowledge it won’t be for everyone. I am not an engineer, by the way. The reason I liked it so much is the way Charles unpacked why our streets and roads are designed the way they are, but more importantly, to realize there are options to making streets far less biased to vehicles. He shows how making streets more walkable also makes them more economically productive. Not surprisingly, streets can also be engineered to support biking and buses.

The next book was Street Fight by Janette Sadik-Khan, New York City’s Transportation Commissioner during the mayoral tenure of Michael Bloomberg. She provides fascinating insights into the transformation of NYC under her leadership from 2007-2013. For example, by 2013, 300 miles (or 480 km) of bike lanes were installed. Following that, she oversaw the launch of a bikeshare system comprised of 6000 bikes across 330 docking stations that saw 10 million rides in just over the first year. I just checked, and based on the website, is still operating (now with e-bikes) and very successfully, it appears.  The list of transformations are too long to mention though included things like reclaiming parts of streets to make them safer for pedestrians and conversion to parks. even transforming the iconic Times Square for pedestrians. I see in Calgary the innovations pioneered in NYC.

The book I’m reading now: Human Transit: How Clearer Thinking about Public Transit Can Enrich Our Communities and Lives by Jarrett Walker. As a regular rider of Calgary’s light rail transit (CTrain) and wannabe bus rider, I am thoroughly enjoying how he helps us have the right conversations rather than confrontations. Super practical and explains the fundamental geometry of transit to shape successful systems.

In all this reading, I feel like I’m coming late to the “urbanism” party. By that I mean, the uncomfortable feeling you’ve been missing out. So why all this focus on urbanism, you ask? By 2050, two thirds of the global population is expected to live in cities. Solving for climate change means changing our cities and how we live in them. The built environment which we live in Canada and the US (perhaps Australia as well) has been pre-programmed as car-dependent sprawling cities, in inefficient single-family homes. I’m learning there are corrections we can make, like unlocking restrictive city zoning as an important place to start. But it is not just zoning. Strong Towns helped me see that it really does take an ecosystem approach (my framing – excuse my forestry background on this one). Check out this video, for example: Can American Cities Save Themselves? This One Thinks So.

I’ve got a few more books on my reading list in the same vein:

  • Walkable Cities: How Downtown Can Save America, One Step at a Time by Jeff Speck and
  • Tactical Urbanism: Short-term Action for Long-term Change by Mike Lydon & Anthony Garcia. 

Building codes are another area under-recognized for the energy efficiency gains and emissions reductions to be had – something else on my list of areas to learn more about. Projections suggest 80% of the buildings in 2050 already exist today. That means we’re likely to face expensive retrofits. I look longingly across to the province of BC with their Step Code, wishing my province would do likewise. I welcome recommended reading or resources to improve my basic understanding and for how to begin to tackle the barriers.

Just as I have aimed to shape your thinking, I invite you to shape mine. Send me your thoughts, ideas and encouragement.


Finance & Sentiment

The backlash against net-zero begins | MoneyWeek
[Excerpt] Other costs are more obvious to consumers – and do not make them happy. A letter to The Times this week noted that installing an air-source heat pump costs £14,000. It then saves around £385 a year. But installing a £2,000 gas boiler and sticking £12,000 in a bank account at 4% would yield £480 a year. The costs may come down as the technology improves. But for now this kind net-zero compliance comes with the kind of price penalty voters might not stomach.
[Comment] The argument in the article that the UK represents only 1% of global emissions as a reason to slow-walk action is not credible. Yet the reality is that political will to accelerate climate action will be hard to come by when the costs for those actions are felt as an economic hardship. As the article notes “There is a firm majority for aiming to reduce the UK’s emissions to net-zero by 2050. But there is none (in any party) for introducing policies to reduce emissions “even if these result in some additional costs for ordinary people”. Everyone’s pro net-zero – but that support isn’t very deep. When it runs up against real bills it begins to fade.”

NextDecade Takes FID on $18.4B Rio Grande LNG Phase 1 | Hart Energy
NextDecade Corp.’s $18.4 billion Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) export facility is a go, the company said on July 12 in a press release. The company reached a final investment decision (FID) on the first three trains for the 17.6 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) Phase 1 of its liquefaction facility in Brownsville, Texas.

Boston mayor bans fossil fuel use in municipal buildings | pv magazine
As part of the city’s push to become carbon emissions neutral by 2050, Boston mayor Michelle Wu signed an executive order to ban the use of fossil fuels in new and renovated buildings.

S&P Global eliminates ESG scores from credit ratings following investor confusion | Financial Post
S&P Global Inc. will no longer publish ESG scores along with its credit ratings, as the company adjusts its approach in response to investor feedback.


Technology

Hydrogen 

Shanghai to have 70 hydrogen refueling stations and 10,000 FCEVs in operation by 2025 | China Hydrogen
Shanghai government issued a hydrogen industry development plan on July 31, according to this plan, Shanghai will build and operate 70 hydrogen refueling stations by 2025, increasing substantially from 14 stations currently.

No more hydrogen trains | Rail company that launched world’s first H2 line last year opts for all-electric future | Hydrogen Insight
State-owned LNVG to buy 102 battery trains and 27 catenary-connected models in order to phase out diesel, says Lower Saxony government.

Ford to develop its first hydrogen semi truck, targeted at Europe | Hydrogen Insight
Ford Trucks has signed a deal with Canadian hydrogen technology company Ballard Power to partner on the development of a fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) version of its F-Max 44-tonne long-haul tractor trucks.
[Comment] Another proof point for hydrogen-powered big rig trucks. Battery-electric may be fine for smaller delivery trucks, but for Class 8, hydrogen makes more sense to enable faster refueling and the range needed. 

Wisdom Motor to deliver 147 hydrogen heavy-duty trucks to Australia | China Hydrogen
Wisdom Motor, a FCEV innovator headquartered in Fujian, China, announced it signed a contract to export 147 hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty waste management trucks to Australia.

[Alberta] Province announces $45 million to help fund hydrogen innovation | Calgary Herald
The funding will be funnelled through two competitions that will select a proposal in its early stages of development, and another that is closer to completion.


Carbon Capture 

US announces first winners in $3.5B carbon removal program | Canary Media
Two direct air capture facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast will receive federal funding to try to pull millions of metric tons of CO2 from the sky.

Sinopec, Shell, Baowu Steel, and BASF began feasibility study of first 10 million ton CCS project in China | China Hydrogen
[Excerpts] China has significant geological potential for storing carbon, with an estimated 2400 gigaton in storage capacity, second only to the US. It currently has more than 40 CCUS pilot projects with a total capacity of 3 million ton.
[Comment] The scale of this potential project puts it among the biggest in the world being contemplated. 

North Dakota regulators deny siting permit for Summit carbon dioxide pipeline; company will reapply | AP News
North Dakota regulators denied a siting permit Friday for a proposed carbon dioxide pipeline that would cross five states.

Saipem Partners With Stockholm Exergi To Build Large-Scale CO2 Capture Plant In Sweden | Carbon Herald

UAE state giant signs key carbon capture deal with Japanese player | Upstream Online


The Grid 

FERC issues rule to speed grid connections for storage, renewables, other generators amid 2-TW backlog | Utility Dive
With generators facing years to complete interconnection reviews, the rule is a “significant” step in getting new power supplies online, but more work is needed, according to experts.


Urban Design and Buildings 

Germany’s first ‘net-zero neighborhood’ under construction in Berlin | edie
The value chains of urban areas account for 70% of global annual emissions, according to the UN. As urbanization continues, it will be crucial to decarbonise cities if the net-zero transition is to be delivered.
PwC has this week posted an update on the development of Berlin TXL. It is a major regeneration project arounds Berlin’s Tegel aerodrome that has been in the works for more than ten years, with construction now underway on key facets of what is set to be Germany’s first neighborhood with net-zero operational emissions.

TXL is designed as a walkable neighbourhood, where all residents and workers will be within a five-minute walk of all key services. Novel construction methods and materials will be used to minimize embodied carbon, and buildings and infrastructure systems face heightened requirements on energy efficiency and renewable energy use.

Several cleantech start-ups are already setting up shop in TXL, whether in offices or at its industrial and research park. Businesses working in nature-based solutions are also flocking to the neighborhood.
PwC describes TXL as “an $8bn sandbox for figuring out sustainable urban development at scale”.


Small Modular Reactors 

Ontario Power Generation and province plan 3 more small modular reactors | Canadian Press
Ontario Power Generation and the province are planning three more small modular reactors at the site of the Darlington nuclear power plant. One SMR is already being built there, with construction of the first unit set to be complete by 2028.
[Comment] See more here from BNN Bloomberg: Canada turns to Nuclear power after 30-year pause to meet demand surge

Sweden Needs to Treble Nuclear Power as Electricity Demand Soars | BNN Bloomberg
[Excerpt] At least 10 new conventional reactors need to be built by 2045, Romina Pourmokhtari, the nation’s climate and energy minister, said in a statement on Wednesday. The biggest Nordic nation has six reactors in operation today. Vattenfall AB and Finland’s Fortum Oyj are studying building small modular reactors that could come online at some point in the first half of next decade. However, German utility Uniper SE, which operates Sweden’s biggest reactor, earlier this month dealt a blow to the government’s ambitions by saying it had no plans to invest further in the technology.


Energy Storage 

Energy Vault starts commissioning EVx gravity energy storage system in China | Energy Storage News

After mechanical completion of the 25MW/100MWh project, commissioning started in June and Energy Vault expects the project to be fully interconnected to the local state utility grid in the fourth quarter of this year.
[Comment] Just look at the size of this thing! And it is only 25MW/100MWh? No matter how efficient the construction is for the concrete blocks that will be lifted up during “charging”, it still defies belief that this technology can compete on cost. 

Plans approved for world’s largest battery storage scheme in Manchester | edie
Planning permission has been granted for the world’s largest battery energy storage scheme to be developed in Manchester, with Carlton Power aiming to have the 1GW project entering commercial operation in 2025.

Eku Energy and Renera to develop 1GW of battery storage in Italy | Energy Storage News
[Excerpt] Italy is forecast to be the third-largest energy storage market in Europe by 2030 by which date transmission system operator (TSO) Terna aims to have a renewable energy mix of 65%, Eku said. Battery storage projects in the south will primarily provide load shifting of renewables while those in the north will be more focused on ancillary services to the grid.

16GW of BESS registered for upcoming Poland capacity market auction | ($) Energy Storage News
Around 16GW of battery energy storage system (BESS) projects got preliminary registration for this year’s capacity market auction in Poland, developer Hynfra told Energy-Storage.news.

Tata Power to develop 2.8 GW of pumped hydro projects in India | pv magazine
Tata Power and the government of the Indian state of Maharashtra have agreed to develop 2.8 GW of pumped hydro storage projects.

ExxonMobil joins Big Oil’s dash for lithium | Argus Media
ExxonMobil is the latest oil producer looking to apply its drilling expertise to lithium exploration, as Big Oil seeks new ways to navigate the energy transition.


Solar and Wind 

US developer secures $779 million for massive 800 MW solar project in Illinois | pv magazine
Swift Current Energy has secured $779 million in financing for an 800 MW solar project in Illinois – the second-largest PV installation in the nation.

Maxeon Solar to build 3 GW cell and module plant in Albuquerque | pv magazine
The company will invest $1 billion in the TOPCon manufacturing facility, creating up to 1,800 highly skilled jobs.

Heliene plans to manufacture 1 GW solar modules, 1.5 GW solar cells in the U.S. | pv magazine
Canadian-based Heliene plans a new factory in Minnesota that will begin producing modules in 2024 and cells in 2025.

[Comment] Just look at the above three examples of new solar production plants being built in the US. No where near the scale in China, though clearly a step in the direction orchestrated by the Inflation Reduction Act. 

Ottawa announces $160M for Alberta solar power projects | Calgary Herald
[Excerpt] Speaking in Drumheller Tuesday morning, federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson said the $160-million envelope would fund nine projects which will generate a cumulative 163 megawatts of solar power, along with 48 MW of battery storage capacity. Also, see formal announcement at Canada.ca

New Zealand is partnering with BlackRock in aim to reach 100% renewable electricity | AP News
New Zealand’s government said Tuesday it will partner with U.S. investment giant BlackRock in its aim to become one of the first nations in the world to have its electricity grid run entirely from renewable energy. The government said it was helping BlackRock launch a $1.2 billion fund to ramp up investments in wind and solar generation, as well as battery storage and green hydrogen. Subtext….

Brazil added 6.8 GW of new PV in H1 | pv magazine
[Excerpt] Brazil reached 32 GW of cumulative installed PV capacity at the end of June, constituting approximately 14.7% of the nation’s overall installed capacity, which currently stands at 194.38 GW.


Transportation 

Seven Automakers Will Open a Vast EV Charging Network Together in 2024 | Car and Driver
BMW, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, and Stellantis have teamed up to open 30,000 new fast-charging stations across North America starting in 2024.
[Comment] I’m impressed. I’d be more impressed if they also tackled reliability like they are in the UK. See here: EV chargepoint 99% reliability standard to launch this month | Current
[Excerpt] Announced by the Department for Transport on 11 July, the Regulations states the reliability requirement for electric vehicle (EV) charging as: “the network of rapid charge is, on average, reliable for 99% of the time during each calendar year.”

1 in 4 new cars sold in California last quarter were EVs, an all-time high | LA Times
[Excerpts] California has sold more than 1.6 million EVs to date and they account for 34% of all EV sales in the country. To promote the sale of green vehicles, the state offers rebates of up to $7,500 for battery-electric and hydrogen-fuel-cell vehicles and up to $6,500 for plug-in hybrids.

EV firm Proterra files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection | Reuters
Electric-vehicle parts supplier Proterra (PTRA.O) filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday, making it the latest company to go belly up in an industry grappling with supply chain constraints, slowing demand and a funding drought.

American cars are developing a serious weight problem | Financial Post
Average new vehicle has gained 175 pounds in the past three years, bloating made worse by transition to electric models. “It’s not good for the environment, it’s not good for resources, it’s not good for efficiency.” Ned Curic, Chief Technology Officer, Stellantis.

Toyota electric robotaxis to take on China | Electrek
Toyota has a new way of deploying its EVs across China. Autonomous mobility startup Pony.ai announced Friday that it held a joint venture singing ceremony with Toyota Motor Investment and GAC Toyota Motor to mass produce and deploy fully driverless electric robotaxis in China.

Mercedes-Benz to adopt Tesla’s EV charging standard in North America | CNN
Mercedes-Benz announced its electric vehicle drivers will be able to use Tesla superchargers starting next year and that it will fully adopt the company’s charging standard in 2025.

BMW Raises Outlook for Vehicle Deliveries on Strong EV Demand | BNN Bloomberg
[Excerpt] The level of buyer interest in EVs means BMW is “investing more than originally planned in the global ramp-up of e-mobility,” Chief Financial Officer Walter Mertl said Thursday, adding that investments in batteries for the current and next generation of EVs are “massive.”

Tesla plans 9 electric semitruck charging stations between California and Texas | Electrek

Subaru shifts focus to EVs with plans for eight electric models by 2028 | Electrek


Policy

Australia joins G7-backed ‘climate club’ and promises to drive down greenhouse gas emissions | AP News
Australia is joining the “climate club” backed by the Group of Seven major economies to take more ambitious action in tackling global warming, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Monday.